Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The mean figure of everyday homicides per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative data. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these past months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the least amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety experts warned that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.